基于熵权-突变级数法的安徽省资源环境承载力时空演变分析及障碍因子诊断

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment in Anhui Province Based on Entropy Weight-Catastrophe Progression Method

以安徽省16个地级市作为研究对象,运用熵权-突变级数法模型,构建了资源-环境-社会-经济4个方面的评价指标体系,结合障碍度模型,对2000、2005、2010、2015和2016年研究区资源环境承载力时序变化特征及障碍因子进行了分析。结果表明:(1)研究期内安徽省16个地级市承载力划分为优(Ⅰ)、良(Ⅱ)、一般(Ⅲ)、较差(Ⅳ)、差(Ⅴ)5个等级,第Ⅰ类为芜湖;第Ⅱ类包括淮南、马鞍山、淮北、合肥、滁州、安庆和蚌埠;第Ⅲ类包括宣城、黄山和池州;第Ⅳ类包括宿州、铜陵、六安和亳州;第Ⅴ类为阜阳;(2)从准则层来看,经济承载力是影响安徽省资源环境承载力的首要障碍因子;从指标层来看,社会固定资产投资总额、人均水资源量、每万人拥有高等学校在校学生人数等指标是主要障碍因子。

Taking 16 prefecture-level cities of Anhui province as the research objects, we use the entropy weight-catastrophe progression method to construct the evaluation index system from the aspects of resource, environment, society and economy, and analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and obstacle factors of Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment(CCRE) in the studied areas in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2016 by using the obstacle degree model. The results show that:(1) The CCRE of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui province in the study period can be divided into five classes, namely excellent(Ⅰ), good(Ⅱ), general(Ⅲ), poor(Ⅳ), and bad(Ⅴ). Class Ⅰ includes Wuhu. Class Ⅱ includes Huainan, Ma’anshan, Huaibei, Hefei, Chuzhou, Anqing and Bengbu. Class Ⅲ includes Xuancheng, Huangshan and Chizhou. Class Ⅳ includes Suzhou, Tongling, Lu’an and Bozhou. Class Ⅴ includes Fuyang.(2) From the perspective of criterion layer, the economic carrying capacity is the primary obstacle factor affecting the CCRE of Anhui province;from the perspective of index layer, the total amount of social fixed assets investment, the per-capita water resource quantity, and the number of college students per 10000 people are the main obstacle factors.