贵阳市空气质量多模式预报系统PM_(2.5)预报效果评估

Evaluation of PM_(2.5) forecast performance of air quality multi-mode forecast system in Guiyang City

介绍了贵阳市多模式空气质量数值预报系统,并评估其对2017年贵阳市PM_(2.5)日均浓度的未来24小时以及7天潜势预报效果。评估结果表明:各模式基本能预测出PM_(2.5)的浓度变化趋势,但量级与实测值仍有偏差,对峰值和低值的预报仍有不足;综合来看,集成模式预报效果相较于其它模式更稳定(FAC最高,为82%),WRF-chem预报显著高估了PM_(2.5)的浓度,其预报效果最差(FAC最低,为64%);对比模式7天预报时效效果,前5天预报结果的相关系数较好(r均在0. 6左右),可作为PM_(2.5)业务预报的支撑。

The multi-mode air quality numerical forecasting system of Guiyang City was introduced,and its forecast performance on the future 24-hour and 7-day potential of PM 2.5 daily average concentration in Guiyang in 2017 was evaluated.The evaluation results show that each model can basically predict the trend of PM 2.5 concentration,but the magnitude is still deviated from the actual measured value,and there are still insufficient predictions for peak and low values.In general,the integrated model forecasting effect is better than other models and are more stable(the highest in the FAC,82%),and the WRF-chem forecast significantly overestimates the concentration of PM 2.5,with the worst prediction(FAC is the lowest,64%);the comparison of 7-day forecast results revealed that the previous 5-day had better prediction result when the correlation coefficient r is around 0.6,this meant that the multi-mode forecast system could be used for daily forecasting.