基于核密度分析的食源性疾病热点探测

Research of Foodborne Diseases Based on Kernel Density Analysis

目的通过对我国京津冀的食源性疾病病例数据进行分析,探索疾病的空间分布格局,为食源性疾病的预警预测提供科学依据。方法采用描述性统计、点位图和核密度分析研究发病的分布密度和概率,并探测其热点区域。结果发病月份集中在八月份,场所集中在宾馆饭店和家庭,人群主要为青少年;发病热点区域主要发生在天津市的东部沿海地区、北京市的东部和南部以及秦皇岛市的东部沿海地区。结论京津冀3个地区中沿海地区的食源性疾病发病数最多,应加强沿海地区的食源性疾病的预防。

Objective This paper is to explore the spatial distribution pattern of foodborne diseases by analyzing the data of cases of foodborne diseases in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, so as to provide scienti?c basis for early warning and prediction of foodborne diseases. Method Descriptive statistics, inode bitmap and Kernel Density Analysis were used to study the distribution density and probability of morbidity and to detect hoy spots. Results We can see the period of outbreak was mainly in August, and the place was mainly in hotels, restaurants and families and the outbreak areas were mainly in the eastern coastal areas of Tianjin, the eastern and southern parts of Beijing and the eastern coastal areas of Qinhuangdao.Conclusions The incidence of foodborne diseases is the highest in the coastal areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the prevention of foodborne diseases in coastal areas should be strengthened.