基于VAR模型的金融支持实体经济实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Financial Support Real Economy based on VAR Model

运用格兰杰检验等实证分析方法分析金融业增加值与经济增长的关系。并在此基础上,尝试从其他存款性金融机构资产配置的角度解释为什么金融业增加值快速增长。通过VAR模型构建发现其他存款性金融机构将新增资金分配至金融业或者实体经济领域,短期来看资金配置于金融业的贡献程度要高于实体经济的贡献程度,但资金配置于实体经济的贡献程度在长期内会趋于稳定并产生持续贡献。金融业资金在内部转动是我国金融业增加值近些年快速增长的可能原因。实证结果从数量关系角度解读了中国金融业增加值快速增长与金融业资金配置之间的因果关系。

This paper uses Granger test and other empirical analysis methods to analyze the relationship between financial industry added value and economic growth. On this basis, this paper tries to explain why the financial industry added value is growing rapidly from the perspective of asset allocation of other depository financial institutions. The VAR model shows that other depository financial institutions allocate new funds to the financial or the real economy. In the short run, the contribution of capital allocation to the financial is higher than that of the real economy, but the contribution of capital allocation to the real economy tends to be stable in the long run and produces sustained contributions. The internal rotation of financial funds is the driving force for the rapid growth of China' s financial in recent years. The empirical results interpret the causal relationship between the rapid growth of financial industry added value and the allocation of financial funds from the quantitative perspective.