税收规避、盈余持续性与市场异象

Tax Avoidance, Earnings Persistence and Market Anomaly

本文以2007—2016年中国A股上市公司为样本,从避税行为的经济后果视角探究税收规避对公司盈余持续性的影响,并利用Mishkin模型考察资本市场能否有效反映这一影响。研究发现:避税行为可以显著提高公司盈余持续性。通过对盈余成分的细分,发现避税行为对正常应计利润持续性的提高显著高于可操纵应计利润;同时,避税行为对公司特质盈余持续性的提高显著高于行业层面盈余,市场倾向于高估避税行为对公司特质盈余持续性的影响。

Based on all A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016,this paper directly explores the impact of corporate tax avoidance on earnings persistence,and uses the Mishkin model to explore whether Chinese capital market can effectively reflect this effect.This paper finds that tax avoidance can significantly enhance the earnings persistence of a company.Through the breakdown of the earnings components,this paper finds that the increase consequence of tax avoidance on normal accruals is significantly higher than that on abnormal accruals,that is,the improvement of corporate earnings persistence is mainly achieved by tax avoidance guiding enterprises to limit their daily business activities to a fixed model.At the same time,tax avoidance behaviors also could enhance the persistence of both the industry-level earnings and firm-specific earnings of a company,but the latter is more obvious.However,the market tends to overestimate the effect of tax avoidance on the persistence of the firm-specific earnings.