基于SNA视角的PPP项目合同提前终止风险

Risk on Early Contract Termination of PPP Project Based on SNA Perspective

PPP模式已越来越多地被基础设施与公共服务领域采用。然而实践中,有大量的PPP项目被提前终止,公私合作模式依旧存在诸多问题。首先从三个层面识别出PPP项目合同提前终止的风险因素,并基于问卷调查与一致性分析判断风险因素间相互关系,构建出风险关系邻接矩阵。其次利用社会网络分析方法中整体网的块模型分析与个体网的"中心性"分析,获得风险网络中的核心风险因素,并利用线的中间中心度确定网络中关键风险关系。最后结合风险因素间相互影响关系,针对核心风险因素与风险关系给出了相应的控制措施。政府与私人部门应加强自身风险行为管理,及时切断风险事件的传播,重点关注与项目特征有关的风险因素以及外部环境变动,从而减少合同提前终止的发生。

The PPP model has been increasingly adopted by infrastructure and public services. However , many PPP projects have been terminated early, and there are still many problems about PPP model. Firstly, the risk factors of early contract termination of PPP projects were identified from three levels. Questionnaire survey and consistency analysis were used to identify the relationship between risk factors, and the risk relationship adjacency matrix was constructed. Secondly, the core risk factors were obtained by the block model analysis of the whole network and the “centrality” analysis of the individual network in the social network analysis, and the key risk relationship was determined by the line centrality. Finally, combined with the relationship between risk factors, control measures were given for the core risk factors and risk relationships. The government and the private sector should strengthen their risk behavior management, cut off the spread of risk events timely, and pay attention to risk factors related to project characteristics and external environmental changes, thereby reducing the occurrence of early termination of contracts.