职业足球运动员出场年龄特征问题研究:国家队、联赛与U23政策

A Study on Professional Footballers' Age of Appearance:National Teams,Professional Leagues and U23 Policy

通过对2010-2017年期间,中国、法国、德国、日本等8个国家5 615名高水平职业足球运动员在国家队与联赛中出场年龄特征的统计分析,得出以下职业足球运动员出场年龄的主要特征:1)各国国家队运动员出场年龄主要集中在24～28岁,这也是各国运动员竞技水平发展的巅峰期;2)各国国家队运动员大都在22岁前获得联赛首次出场,其中,各国国家队重要成员几乎全部在21岁前实现职业联赛首次出场,并在24岁前实现国家队首次出场;3)随着联赛首次出场年龄的提升,运动员进入国家队和成为国家队重要成员的概率都会不断下降,21岁之后才开始获得联赛出场的运动员,这两项概率都会低于全部运动员的平均值。

By an empirical analysis on 5 615 professional footballers in 8 countries around the world during 2010-2017, this paper points out the main characteristics of footballers' age in attending national team and league matches, including: 1) professional footballers usually attend national team matches at the age of 24~28, which should also be the peak age of all footballers;2) most national team footballers could make their league debut before 22, while those key players in national teams could always make their league debut before 21 and national team debut before24;3) as the age of league debut rises, a footballer's chances to enter national team and become a key player will both fall, and the chances will be lower than the average if he make his league debut after 21.