普惠金融对经济增长的影响——基于“一带一路”国家的空间计量分析

The Influence of Inclusive Finance on Economic Growth:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on "the Belt and Road" Countries

本文选取了2011、2014和2017年"一带一路"沿线国家的跨国面板数据,计算了各国的普惠金融指数,并通过构建面板模型和空间计量模型,考察了普惠金融对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:普惠金融在一定程度上会抑制经济的增长,特别是金融服务地理渗透性维度的普惠金融与经济增长之间呈现显著的负相关。此外,根据空间杜宾模型,"一带一路"国家的普惠金融发展有正的空间溢出效应,即一国普惠金融的发展有助于推动邻国的经济增长。本文对"一带一路"国家普惠金融的推进与区域经济的增长有一定的政策启示。

This paper selects the transnational panel data of "the Belt and Road" countries in 2011, 2014 and 2017, then calculates the inclusive finance index, and finally examines the influence of inclusive finance on economic growth by constructing panel model and spatial econometric model. The results show that inclusive finance can restrain economic growth to some extent, especially the development of inclusive finance in the dimension of geographical penetration of financial services. In addition, the inclusive finance of "the Belt and Road" countries has a positive spatial spillover effect on economic growth, that is, the development of inclusive finance in one country can promote the economic growth of neighboring countries. This paper has some policy inspiration for both the inclusive finance and regional economic growth of these countries.