GM(1,1)灰色预测模型在高速铁路项目施工成本动态管理中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model in Dynamic Management of High-speed Railway Construction Cost

为加强对高速铁路工程项目施工成本动态管理,实施事前主动控制,本文利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对项目责任成本管理效果进行预测,以汉十高速铁路某标段施工阶段施工责任成本管理为例,建立并验证预测模型的可行性。结果表明,GM(1,1)灰色预测模型在具有较高的精度,既能够对项目施工责任成本管理效果进行动态预测和评价,还能够有助于实现项目事前主动控制。

In order to strengthen the dynamic management of high-speed railway construction cost and do active control beforehand,grey prediction model is used to predict the effect of the responsibility cost management of the project and taking the construction responsibility cost of a certain section of Han-Ten high-speed railway as an example, the aim of this paper is to establish a predictive model as well as to verify the reliability of the model. The research result shows that the GM(1,1) gray prediction model is of high precision;it can not only dynamically predict and evaluate the project construction cost management effect, but also help to realize the project’s active control beforehand.