外部失衡下的金融调整:理论发展及对中国启示

Financial Adjustment under External Imbalance:Theoretical Development and Enlightenment to China

近年来,随着全球国际收支失衡持续加剧,国际投资头寸的失衡现象越发明显,并成为全球外部失衡的重要表现形式。由资产价格或汇率波动,引致国际投资头寸失衡的变动,被称为外部失衡的金融调整,对其影响、驱动因素以及机制的研究逐渐成为外部调整理论的重要拓展,进而形成外部失衡金融调整理论。通过对该理论相关研究的梳理,首先发现,较之贸易调整,金融调整对外部失衡调整的贡献程度日益提升,逐渐成为研究国家外部经贸问题所不可或缺的因素。其次发现,较之汇率波动,资产价格波动更能有效解释外部失衡的金融调整,并且国家间国际投资头寸配置结构的差异性成为影响金融调整有效性的深层次因素,而国家间金融发展程度的差异是国际投资头寸配置结构差异的主要来源。再次发现,在金融经济周期冲击下,金融调整一定程度上能够对外部失衡调整起缓冲作用,并为评价宏观经济政策实施有效性提供新视角。最后对金融调整理论的未来研究方向进行展望。随着中国加速融入世界经济,不断发展的外部失衡金融调整理论能为中国外部财富的优化以及外部经济的发展提供有益启示,助力高质量开放格局的构建。

In recent years,with the increasing imbalance about balance of payments,the imbalance of international investment positions became more obvious,and it become the most important manifestation of global external imbalances.The adjustment to the imbalance of international investment position based on asset prices or exchange rate fluctuations was known as financial adjustments of external imbalances.The studies of its adjustment influence,driving factors and adjustment mechanism has gradually become an important expansion of the external adjustment theory,and then the studies formed the theory of external imbalance financial adjustment.By combing the related research of this theory,Firstly,it was found that,compared with the trade adjustment,the contribution of financial adjustment to the adjustment of external imbalances was increasing,and it had gradually become an indispensable factor in the studies of the country's external economic and trade problems.Secondly,it was found that asset price volatility was more effective in explaining the financial adjustment of external imbalance than exchange rate fluctuations.Moreover,the difference in the allocation structure of international investment positions among countries became a deep-seated factor affecting the effectiveness of financial adjustment.And the difference in the degree of financial development among countries was the main source of differences in the allocation structure of international investment positions.Thirdly,it was found that under the impact of the financial and economic cycle,financial adjustment could buffer the adjustment of external imbalance to a certain extent,and it also provided a new perspective for evaluating the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation.Finally,the future direction of financial adjustment theory is prospected.As China accelerates its integration into the world economy,the development of external imbalance financial adjustment theory could provide useful enlightenment for China's external wealth optimization and external economic development,and would be helpful to the construction of high quality open pattern in China.