收入差距、消费需求与经济增长——基于中国省域面板数据的研究

Income Inequality,Consumption and Growth——A Rresearch on China's Province Level

收入差距对经济增长的影响历来是研究热点,文章在两者中间加入了"消费"这一环,研究了收入差距、消费不足对经济增长的影响。文章总结了现有研究有关收入差距对经济增长的影响的观点,并结合对我国近年来发展状况的观察,认为收入差距扩大引起的消费不足严重阻碍着经济增长的可持续性。利用我国31个省1978年以来的数据,通过FGLS模型和GMM模型分析发现,在各地收入差距对经济增长的影响都显著为负,当期消费的影响显著为负,但前期消费对经济增长存在着显著的正向影响。此外,收入差距和消费不足对经济的不利影响在不同地区表现为"东部<中部<西部";且经济增长对这种不利影响的缓解作用在不同地区也不同,表现为"东部>中部>西部"。总体来看,收入差距、消费不足对经济增长的阻碍在较为落后的中西部地区更为严重。

The influence of income inequality on economic growth has always been an important research area.In this paper,consumption is added to link income gap and growth.First,this paper summarized the existing research on the impact of income gap on growth.Second,combined with the observation of China’s development in recent years,considers that the consumption shortage caused by the expansion of income gap seriously hinders the sustainability of economic growth.And then,This paper uses the data of China’s 31 provinces from 1978-2016 to make empirical analysis.By using FGLS and GMM models,it is found that the impact of income gap on economic growth is significantly negative in all regions,while the impact of current consumption is significantly negative,but there is a significant positive impact of early consumption on economic growth.In addition,the adverse effects of income gap and insufficient consumption on the economy in different regions are “eastern < central < western”.And the mitigation effect of economic growth is different between regions,which is “eastern > Central > western”.Generally speaking,the income gap and insufficient consumption hinder economic growth more seriously in the central and western regions of China,which are more economically backward.