基于API模型和SCE-UA算法的三湾水库产流预报模型研究

Study of Sanwan Reservoir runoff producing forecast model based on API model and SCE-UA algorithm

产流预报是水利工程设计和运行管理的重要内容。以辽宁丹东三湾水库为例,利用人机交互试错法与SCE-UA算法构建起基于API水文模型和SCE-UA算法的三湾水库产流预报模型。通过对2012~2016年23场洪水预报,合格率这87%,该模型对提高三湾水库的流域产流预报精度具有重要意义。

Runoff producing forecast is a key item for design and operation of hydraulic project. Taking the Sanwan Reservoir in Dandong City of Liaoning Province as example, the runoff producing forecast model was set up by hu. man-computer interaction trial-and-error method based on API hydrological model and SCE-UA algorithm. The forecast passing rate of 23 times of floods from 2012 to 2016 is 87%. This model is meaningful for improving the runoff producing forecast accuracy of Sanwan Reservoir.