基于地震安全性评价的广东省地震危险性分析

Seismic Risk Analysis of Guangdong Province Based on Seismic Safety Evaluation

地震安全性评价是防震减灾的重要措施之一。地震危险性分析是地震安全性评价的基础。论文利用安全性评价基本理论和方法对广东省的地震危险性进行分析。以广东省历史上发生的中强地震目录作为研究基础,分析了广东省的地质构造特点和断裂特点,划分潜在地震源、确定地震活动性参数,建立了地震发生概率模型,通过计算得出地震带的综合影响。研究结果表明广东省内具有发生7.5、 6.5、 6.0、 5.5级级段地震的发震条件,其中沿海地区是广东省中、强地震的主要发震区域。

Seismic safety evaluation is one of the important measures of mitigating earthquake disasters. Seismic hazard analysis is the foundation of seismic safety evaluation. The paper analyzes the seismic hazard of Guangdong Province by using the basic theory and method of safety evaluation. Based on the catalogue of moderate-strong earthquakes in the history of Guangdong Province,the paper analyzes the geological structure characteristics and fracture characteristics,divides the potential earthquake source,determines the seismicity parameters,establishes earthquake probability model and calculates the comprehensive influence of earthquake zones. The results show that there are seismogenic conditions for the occurrence of 7.5,6.5,6.0,6.5 earthquakes in Guangdong province and the coastal area is the major mid-strong earthquake zone.