巴中市油菜花期低温连阴雨灾害损失评估

Evaluation of damage caused by low temperature and continuous rainfall at flowering stage of rape in Bazhong City

本文利用巴中市1993—2016年4个国家基本气象站逐日气象资料和油菜产量资料,分析了低温连阴雨天气对油菜产量损失影响显著的气象因子,最终确定连阴雨日数、总降水量和日平均气温低于12℃日数3个主要致灾因子。将这3个因子通过统计学方法建立油菜花期低温连阴雨灾害评估等级指标和巴中市油菜低温连阴雨损失定量评估统计模型,并进行验证。

Based on the daily meteorological data of the four national basic meteorological stations in Bazhong City from 1993 to 2016 and the data of the yield of the rape, the meteorological factors which have a significant effect on the yield loss of the rape in the low temperature and the rainy days are analyzed, and the days of the continuous rainy days are finally determined. The three factors were used to establish a statistical model for quantitative assessment of low-temperature continuous rain disaster in oil-rape period and low-temperature continuous-negative rain loss in Bazhong City.