基于风险差分运算的电网调控操作风险快速评估研究

Fast evaluation of power grid regulation and operation risk based on risk differential operation

综合考虑调控操作前后电网运行风险的差异,将电网调控操作风险指标定义为操作前后系统运行风险指标的变化量并引入风险理论,提出一个考虑指数型操作人员实时综合因子的风险差分运算电网调控操作的量化风险指标体系.基于局部潮流量化分析的调控操作关键影响设备搜索技术,用于快速定位受影响较大的敏感节点及支路,缩小风险分析范围.采用基于局部拓扑相关性分析的调控操作事故集筛选技术,以关键设备为搜索中心筛选出与调控操作相关度较高的事故集,实现事故集范围的可控化,有效提升计算效率.该指标体系体现了电网调控操作的实质是系统运行状态的变化,而非某一特定系统运行状态,能够从本质上反映调控操作对电网产生的影响,最后结合多个算例验证所提方法的有效性.

Current grid operators lack an effective tool for operational risk assessment. Considering the difference of power grid operation risk before and after the operation and control, this paper defines the operation risk index of power grid as a risk index before and after operation and introduces the risk theory, and proposes a quantitative risk index system based on real time synthesis factor for exponential operators of risk difference operation. The key impact device search technology based on local power flow quantitative analysis is used to quickly locate sensitive nodes and branches that are affected, which narrows the scope of risk analysis. Based on the local topology correlation analysis, the control operation accident set screening technology is used to select the accident set with high correlation with the control operation by using the key equipment as the search center to realize the controllable range of the accident set and effectively improve the calculation efficiency. The index embodies the essence of the control operation of the power grid is the change of the system running state, but not the running state of a particular system. It can reflect the effect of the control operation on the power grid in essence. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the actual cases.