中国(福建)自由贸易试验区经济效应研究——基于反事实分析法的实证测度

Research on the Economic Effect of China( Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone——Empirical Measurement Based on Counterfactual Analysis

在构建自由贸易试验区对区内经济发展作用机制的基础上,以第二批试点省份的福建作为处置单元,基于"反事实"分析法测算了中国(福建)自由贸易试验区(简称福建自贸试验区)设立前后经济变量的实际值与"反事实"值之差,评估其对地区的经济效应。实证测度结果显示:福建自贸试验区建设显著地促进了福建省实际GDP、外商投资、进出口贸易和创新能力的增长;长期效应分析显示,福建自贸试验区建设对福建经济具有显著的长期溢出效应;福建自贸试验区建设给福建经济带来竞争效应,产生知识溢出,促进了经济增长。最后提出完善福建自贸试验区建设的相关建议。

On the basis of active mechanism of establishing the free trade zone on regional economic development,taking Fujian province,one of the second batch of pilot provinces,as the disposal unit,the paper calculates the difference between the actual value and the “antifactual” value of economic variables before and after the establishment of the free trade zone based on the “antifactual” analysis method,evaluating its economic effects on the region.The results of empirical measurement show that the construction of the free trade zone has significantly promoted the growth of real GDP,foreign investment,import and export trade and innovation ability in Fujian province;Secondly,the long term effect analysis shows that the construction of the free trade zone has a significant long term spillover effect on Fujian economy.Moreover,the construction of the free trade zone has brought competition effects to Fujian economy,generated knowledge spillover and promoted economic growth.Finally,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions for improving the construction of the Fujian free trade zone.