基于风险分析的水库群供水调度规则

Regulation rule for multi-reservoir water supply system based on risk analysis

水库调度规则是指导水库调度运行的重要工具.建立了适用于多调出水库单一调入水库供水系统的调度规则提取模型,模型以系统风险最小化为目标,在水库群模拟调度及系统性能评价的基础上,结合智能优化方法,同时优化系统调度规则与调水规模,避免了多调出水库调出水量分配的问题.从风险控制角度,引入并优化不同用水户的限制供水规则,提升了不同时段间供水公平性.模型应用于应城市水库群供水系统,结果表明联合调水后供水系统中生活、工业、农业缺水风险分别增加了0.62、0.45和0.22,易损性指标则分别降低了0.50、0.55、0.34,占原易损性的81%、73%和40%,表明模型具有较好的合理性和有效性.

Regulation rule is a very important tool for reservoir operation. A regulation rule extraction model is developed for water supply system with multiple donor reservoir and a single recipient reservoir. The goal of the model is to minimize the water supply risk. The operation of the multiple reservoir system is simulated and the performance of the water supply system for every simulation is evaluated. An intelligent algorithm is combined with the simulation model to optimize the regulation lines. The water diversion capacity for every donor reservoir is also optimized to avoid the problem of water allocation between donor reservoirs. The hedging rule is introduced and optimized during the process of simulation and optimization to control water shortage risk, which also improves the fairness of water supply between the current and future time periods. The model is used in the multi-reservoir water supply system in Yingcheng, Hubei Province. The results show that the domestic, industrial and agricultural water shortage risks increase by 0.62,0.45 and 0.22, while the vulnerabilities decrease by 0.50,0.55 and 0.34, accounting for 81%, 73% and 40%, respectively, which verified the rationality and effectiveness of the model proposed.