大凌河流域旱涝预测分析

Analysis of Drought and Flood Prediction for Daling River Basin

通过分析灰色系统的基本原理和计算过程,探讨了旱涝灾害分析中灾变预测模型的建立过程和计算特点,然后以大凌河流域代表性水文站点历年降雨量、径流量监测数据为依据,探验证了模型的可行性与合理性,以期为建立洪涝灾害防治体系和管理制度提供一定参考和依据。

gray prediction;drought and flood disasters;modeling process;Daling river basin Abstract:Through analyzing the basic principle and calculation process of gray system,this paper discussed the building process and calculation characters of disaster prediction model used in drought and flood disasters,after that,taking the annual precipitation of representative hydrological station and runoff monitoring data as the accordance,to verify the feasibility and rationality of model,so as to supply certain reference and accordance for establishing flood disaster prevention and treatment system and management system.