煤炭价格变动对下游产业影响研究

Study on the impact of coal price changes on downstream industries

煤炭在我国国民经济发展中占有重要地位,其对下游产业的影响具有重要意义。本文利用中国2014-2018年的季度时间序列,建立了关于煤炭和火电、钢铁、建材和煤化工四大下游行业的VAR模型等相关统计模型。研究显示:煤炭与下游产业间存在长期均衡关系;煤炭和煤化工行业是双向因果关系,而与钢铁行业和建材行业只存在单项因果关系;脉冲响应显示:火电和建材对煤炭价格的冲击较大,而煤炭价格对下游的火电、钢铁、建材和煤化工四大下游行业冲击相似,呈现正负交替减弱趋势;方差分解说明下游行业对煤炭行业价格波动的贡献率从大到小依次为火电、建材、钢铁和煤化工。最后,本文根据结论提出了相关建议。

Coal plays an important role in the development of China’s national economy, and its influence on downstream industries is of great significance.Using the quarterly time series from 2014 to 2018 in China, this paper established the VAR model and other relevant statistical models for the four downstream industries of coal, thermal power, steel, building materials and coal and chemical industry.The research shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between coal and downstream industries;coal and coal chemical industry are two-way causal relationship, and steel industry and building materials industry is only a single causal relationship;impulse response shows that thermal power and building materials have a great impact on coal price, while coal price has a similar impact on the four downstream industries, showing a weakening trend of positive and negative alternations;variance decomposition shows that the contribution rate of downstream industries to the price fluctuation of coal industry is from large to small, followed by thermal power building materials,steel and coal chemical industry. Finally, some Suggestions are put forward according to the conclusion.