城市房地产泡沫测度研究——基于基础价值与泡沫成分甄别的分析

Measurement of urban real estate bubble——Analysis based on discrimination between basic value and foam components

自2003年以来,关于我国房地产是否存在泡沫一直备受争议。本文基于房地产泡沫定义,将房价区分为基础价值和泡沫成分两部分构建泡沫度量模型。其中房价基础价值部分主要由人均收入水平、经济发展水平、人口因素、社会生产成本和房地产供给量等长期供求因素决定,房价泡沫成分则受房地产政策、货币供应量、信贷政策及市场过度预期等因素影响。采用35个大中城市面板数据的实证结果表明:各城市房地产泡沫差异化明显;房地产泡沫程度与房价高低并无对应关系;房地产市场存在理性泡沫和非理性泡沫。因此,要抑制房地产泡沫必须因城施策,对症下药,控制投机性炒作行为和市场非理性预期。

Since 2003, there has been much controversy over whether bubbles exist in real estate in China. Based on the definition of real estate bubble,this paper builds a foam measurement model by dividing house price into two parts: basic value and foam component. The basic value of housing prices is mainly determined by the long-term supply and demand factors such as per capita income level, economic development level, population factor, social production cost and real estate supply. The price bubbles are affected by real estate policies, money supply, credit policy and excessive market prematurity. The empirical results of the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities show that the real estate bubble is different in different cities, and the degree of real estate bubble is not corresponding to the price level;there are rational bubbles and irrational bubbles in the real estate market. Therefore, in order to curb the real estate bubble, we must take the measures of the city to suit the remedy to the case and control speculative speculation and irrational market expectations.