世界主要国家广义货币与GDP比率的差异性研究

Research on the Difference of Broad Currency/GDP Ratio in Major Countries of the World

1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,世界广义货币/GDP比率呈现出显著的上升趋势,但不同国家广义货币/GDP比率也存在着明显的差异性。本文以中国、美国、英国、德国、法国、日本、韩国、新加坡、印度、澳大利亚和巴西11个主要国家为样本,从金融体系、储蓄率、经常项目和政府财政四个方面,构建一个完整的分析框架,探讨不同国家广义货币/GDP比率差异性的根源,并基于1996-2016年间11个国家面板数据进行相关的计量检验。理论分析与实证分析均非常支持"金融体系-储蓄率-经常项目-政府财政"框架对广义货币/GDP比率差异性的解释力。

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the world broad money/GDP ratio has shown a significant upward trend, but there are also significant differences in the broad money/GDP ratios of different countries. This paper takes China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Australia and Brazil as samples to build a complete financial system, savings rate, current account and government finance.Analytical framework to explore the root causes of the differences in broad money/GDP ratios in different countries, and to conduct relevant measurement tests based on panel data of 11 countries from 1996 to 2016. Both theoretical analysis and empirical analysis strongly support the explanatory power of the broad-based monetary/GDP ratio difference in the framework of "financial system-savings rate-current account-government finance".