减少监管分歧会促进服务贸易增长吗?

Does the Regulatory Divergence Reducion Will Promote Service Trade?

随着服务贸易自由化的不断推进,各国在服务贸易领域的监管分歧逐渐扩大并形成主要的贸易壁垒。文章利用扩展的引力方程对2011～2015年度44个国家15个行业的双边服务贸易数据进行检验。研究发现,如果进口国或出口国具有很高的服务贸易壁垒,那么服务贸易壁垒将削弱监管分歧的影响。除此之外,文章还对行业的分样本、不同政策类别以及国家分样本的影响进行实证检验,研究结果显示,监管分歧对法律、保险、商业银行、电信、邮政和信使这5个行业影响较大;减少在外资进入、人员流动、竞争壁垒、监管透明度这4个方面的监管分歧会促进服务出口。研究表明,有效降低监管分歧能够缩小发展中国家与发达国家之间长期存在的服务贸易逆差,促进发达国家和发展中国家服务贸易的平衡发展。

With the liberalization of service trade,the regulatory divergence of service trade in different countries gradually enlarges and becomes the main trade barrier. Regulatory divergence refers to regulatory inconsistencies between different countries due to differences in cultural,domestic policy priorities,or other factors. This paper uses the extended gravitational equation to test the bilateral service trade data of 15 sectors in 44 countries in 2011 ~ 2015. The results show that reducing the regulatory differenceswill contribute to the increase of service exports. Further research has found that if the importing or exporting countries have high trade barriers on service,it will weaken the effect of regulatory divergence. Besides,this paper also empirically tests the influence of sub sample and different policy categories. The results show that the differences in regulation have a great impact on these industries,such as law industry,insurance,commercial banks,telecommunications,postal and courier,and the regulatory divergences of restrictions on foreign entrence,barriers to competition,and regulatory transparency have obvious negative effects on the export of a country. Regulatory divergence reduction could narrow the service trade deficit and promote the balanced development between the developed countries and developing countries.