边疆旅游地县域旅游经济时空变迁及驱动机制研究——新疆案例

Spatial and temporal changes and driving mechanism of county-scale tourism in frontier tourism destinations

以新疆74个县域单元为研究对象选取多个指标,利用ESDA、ArcGIS和GeoDa等分析方法和手段及动态面板数据模型,分析2008—2017年新疆县域单元旅游经济空间格局演变特征地域差异及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)县域旅游经济集聚特征呈"下降—上升—下降—上升"的态势,彼此之间差异明显,集聚性存在显著的由北向南梯度增强的格局特征。(2)县域旅游经济的"多核心、多条带"分布逐渐形成,但并未改变"北热南冷"的分布格局。(3)受"东北—西南"方向牵引力影响,旅游经济重心轨迹变化呈多个"V"字型重叠分布,也使标准差椭圆的覆盖范围也在此方向上逐渐增大。(4)旅游资源禀赋和政策支持是影响县域旅游经济格局演变的主要驱动因素。交通条件的改善和人力资本水平的提高并非都能促进各县域旅游经济的发展,各影响因素在不同区域间存在明显的强度差异。

As a western frontier region,Xinjiang has gradually become a popular destination for tourism in the northwest of China due to its rich natural and cultural tourism resources generated by its special geographical location and social environment.To grasp the spatial development law of tourism economy is conducive to the formulation of regional tourism economic policies and the sustainable development of regional tourism economy in Xinjiang.The change of spatial pattern of tourism economy is a complicated process.In order to get more accurate and comprehensive analysis of the change process and reasons, taking 74 county units in Xinjiang as the research object and selecting multiple indicators,this paper uses the tools including ESDA,ArcGIS and GeoDa,and the dynamic panel data model to analyze the regional differences and driving mechanism of spatial pattern evolution of tourism economy at the county level in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2017.The results show that the agglomeration of the county scale tourism economy displayed the tendency of "down-up-down-up" because the level of regional tourism development has some correlation with the development of tourism in its neighboring areas.It presents a significant graded change characteristics from the north to the south with an obvious difference from county to county.The enhancement of the fallout of the tourism in the northern regions promoted the interaction between those counties and their neighboring counties and thus formed a spatial distribution pattern of "multi-core and multi-strip",pushing the newly added hot spots southward although this could not change the long-term distribution pattern of "the north being the tourist honeypots while the south being kept in the doghouse" in Xinjiang.Affected by the traction from northeast to southwest,the trajectory of the gravity of the county-scale tourism economy was overlapped with several "V" shapes,which also makes the coverage of the ellipse of the standard deviation be increased gradually in this direction.By regression analysis,there were significant differences in intensity of the influencing factors from county to county.The characteristics of the tourism resources and policy support are the main driving factors.The improvement of traffic condition and human capital level can not necessarily promote the development of county-scale tourism economy in each county.The level of economic development has no obvious influence on the spatial and temporal evolution of tourism economy in the county region.