媒体信息挖掘与分析师盈余预测准确度——基于管理层业绩预告背景的考察

Media Information Discovery and Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts:A Perspective of Management's Earnings Preannouncement

文章以管理层业绩预告为研究背景,实证考察了媒体的信息挖掘作用对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响。研究发现,随着媒体报道数量的增多,管理层业绩预告精度对分析师盈余预测偏差的负向影响更加显著,表明媒体报道为分析师盈余预测提供了额外的公司预期盈余信息,即媒体具有信息挖掘作用。进一步研究发现,媒体报道对业绩预告与分析师盈余预测关系的强化作用在信息透明度较差和业绩预告为"坏消息"的公司中更显著;政策导向媒体比市场导向媒体的信息挖掘作用更强,具体表现为政策导向媒体的新闻报道能够强化业绩预告对分析师盈余预测的影响,但市场导向媒体的影响效果不显著。

Based on the background of earnings preannouncement,this study examines the impact of media information discovery on the analysts’ earnings forecasts accuracy.The results show that with the increase of media coverage,the negative impact of management’s earnings preannouncement accuracy on analysts’ earnings forecasts error become more significant. This finding supports that media coverage provides additional information about the company’s expected earnings for analysts’ earnings forecasts,that is,the media acts a role of information discovery. Further studies find that the positive effect of media coverage on the relationship between earnings preannouncement and analysts ’ earnings forecasts is stronger in companies with poor information transparency,especially when those whose earnings preannouncement is considered as bad news. In addition,the results reveal that policy-oriented media plays a stronger role in information discovery than market-oriented media. Specifically,the policy-oriented media coverage strengthens the impact of earnings preannouncement on analysts’ earnings forecasts. However,the impact of market-oriented media coverage is not significant.