互联网发展、居民消费与快递市场的关系研究——基于空间动态杜宾模型的实证分析

Research on the relationship between Internet development, household consumption and express market——Based on the empirical analysis of spatial dynamic Dubin model

随着互联网的普及、居民消费水平的提高及物流交通的便利,网购用户迅猛增长,极大地助推了快递行业的发展。通过采用空间动态杜宾面板模型,研究了2002年～2016年31个省份的互联网上网人数、居民消费水平和货物周转量3个指标对快递行业发展的影响。结果表明:快递业发展具有显著的空间溢出效应,即本区域快递市场发展能够完善邻近区域物流系统;互联网上网人数区域分布与快递业务量的区域分布存在高度重合性,互联网上网人数对快递业发展影响显著;居民消费水平对快递业的发展有较高水平的推动作用;作为衡量交通便利指数的货物周转量则对快递业的发展在统计上并不显著。

With the popularization of the Internet, the improvement of household consumption level and the convenience of logistics and transportation, the number of online shopping users has incresed rapidly, which greatly boosts the development of the express delivery industry. Through the use of the spatial dynamic Dubin panel model, this paper studies the impact of the number of Internet users, household consumption level and cargo turnover in 31 provinces from 2002 to 2016 on the development of the express delivery industry. The results show that the development of express delivery industry has significant spatial spillover effect.In other words,the development of express market in this region can improve the logistics system of neighboring regions;The regional distribution of Internet users and the regional distribution of express business are highly coincident, and the number of Internet users also has significant impact on the express industry;The household consumption level remarkably influences the development of the express industry;However as a measure of the traffic convenience index, the freight turnover has not statistically significant impact on the express industry.