美联储货币政策正常化的溢出效应分析

Impact of Fed’s Rate Hike and Balance Sheet Shrinking on the World Economy

2008年世界金融危机爆发以后,以美国为首的主要发达经济体先后出台一系列非常规货币政策。随着美国经济复苏势头良好,失业率和通胀率达到政策目标,美联储先后加息和缩减资产负债表规模,启动货币政策正常化进程。美联储的货币政策变化产生强烈的溢出效应,不仅引发欧洲银行和英国央行相继采取缩减购买资产规模和加息等相对紧缩性政策,还引发日元套利交易的兴起和汇率的大幅波动,同时导致新兴经济体短期国际资本流动加剧、资产价格大幅波动、货币贬值、货币政策独立性受损等严重负面影响。美联储货币政策正常化进程将引发国际资本从新兴经济体流向发达经济体,导致新兴经济体的流动性减少以及资产价格下跌,促使新兴经济体货币贬值。另外,美联储货币政策正常化不仅提升了短期利率,而且可能改变投资者风险偏好并提高风险溢价,进而推升其国内的中长期利率,不仅导致发达经济体的真实汇率上升,而且还将增加新兴经济体的债务压力。美联储货币政策正常化进程,将迫使盯住其货币的新兴经济体同样实行紧缩性货币政策。

After the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008,the US and the other major developed economies have introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy. With the recovery of the economy,unemployment and inflation are meeting policy objectives,the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and reduced the size of the balance sheet to start the normalization of monetary policy,which will have a strong spillover effect to the world economy. The process of normalizing monetary policy will lead to the international capital flow from emerging economies to advanced economies,resulting in lower liquidity and asset prices falling in emerging economies,as well as the appreciation of currencies in developed economies and the devaluation of currencies in emerging economies. In addition,the normalization of monetary policy in the US has not only promoted short-term interest rate,and it could change investor risk appetite to raise the risk premium,and then push up its medium-and long-term interest rates,not only to increase real exchange rates in advanced economies,but also to increase the debt pressure on emerging economies to withstand the downward pressure on emerging economies’ currencies. In addition,the process of normalizing monetary policy in the US will force the emerging economies that peg their currencies to similarly tighten monetary policy.