中国省际农业碳排放的时空分异特征及关联效应

Spatial-temporal Differentiation Features and Correlation Effects of Provincial Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China

文章选择1997-2015年数据测算了中国31个省(市、区)农业碳排放量.从时空2个纬度分析了其空间分布规律,利用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)分析了农业碳排放的空间关联效应。结果显示:(1)中国农业碳排放总量波动的趋势呈现出“波动上升-快速下降-缓慢上升”3阶段特征,且波动幅度较大(2)农业碳排放总量及其强度空间分布存在明显的非均衡性.有集聚的趋势,集聚的区域层次分明,有明显的地域特征。(3)农业碳排放呈现出较强的空间相关性.高-高型集聚区域为青藏高原地区,低-低型集聚区域是以河北和江苏为中心的2个集聚区域,但区域面积非常有限:据此,提出农业“碳减排”要实行差异化的政策;考虑邻近区域政策等要素的负溢出性,在高-高型集聚区域.要实行联防共治.避免农业碳排放的此消彼长,实现多贏。

This paper estimated the agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces(cities and districts) in China with the data measured from 1997 to 2015. The spatial distribution regularities were analyzed from two perspectives of time and space, and spatial correlation effect of agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA). The results showed that the trend of the fluctuation of total agricultural carbon emissions in China was characterized by the threephase of "rising in volatility-rapidly descending-slowly rising", with large amplitude of fluctuation. The total agricultural carbon emissions and their spatial distribution of intensity has obvious imbalance with tendency of agglomeration, and the area of agglomeration was distinct and obvious geographical features. The agricultural carbon emissions showed a strong spatial correlation, which the areas of high-high agglomeration were the regions of the Tibetan Plateau and those of low-low agglomeration were two centralization regions centered on Hebei and Jiangsu while the area was very limited. Therefore, a policy of differentiated agricultural carbon emission reduction should be put forward. Considering the negative spillover of the neighboring regional policies and other factors, it was necessary to implement joint defense and co-governance to avoid the shift of agricultural carbon emissions in the high-high agglomeration areas, and thus achieved a win-win situation.