迁移对城市劳动力市场的影响:竞争还是互补?

The Impact of Migration on the Urban Labor Market:Competition or Complementation?

本研究利用2010年全国人口普查数据和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据并匹配相关年份地级城市层面的经济社会指标,采用工具变量法从地级城市"市辖区"层面实证分析新时期以来迁移对城市劳动力市场的真实影响。研究发现:第一,迁移有助于降低城市失业率,改善城市劳动力市场状况,迁移劳动力比例每增加10%,城市调查失业率大约下降1. 64%,而且迁移劳动力并没有对城市本地人口产生就业挤出效应。第二,迁移对于城市本地人口劳动参与率具有负面效应,但对总体劳动参与率存在积极影响。迁移劳动力比例每增加10%,本地人口劳动参与率下降约0. 54%,总体劳动参与率上升约0. 34%。第三,迁移对城市本地人口的工资水平具有中长期的积极影响,迁移劳动力的比例每增加10%,城市本地人口实际工资水平提高11. 71%。迁移劳动力与本地劳动力之间呈现"互利共赢"而非"此消彼长"关系,迁移对城市劳动力市场总体上存在积极影响。

This study uses the instrumental variable method to empirically analyze the impact of migration on the urban labor market,based on the census data in 2010 and the 1 percent national population sampling survey data in 2015 with corresponding annual city-level social economic indicators.The findings are as follows.Firstly,migration helps to reduce the urban unemployment rate and to improve the conditions of urban labor market.Results show that a 10 percent increase in migrant workers would lead to a 1.64 percent decrease in urban unemployment,which means the migrant labor do not have a crowding-out effect on the employment of urban local population.Secondly,migration has a negative effect on labor participation rate of the urban population but a positive effect on the overall labor participation rate.With a 10 percent increase in the proportion of migrant workers,the labor participation rate of the urban resident labor would decrease by approximately 0.54 percent,and the overall labor participation rate would increase by about 0.34 percent.Thirdly,migration has a positive effect on the wage level of the urban population in the medium or long term.As migrant workers increase by 10 percent,and the real wage level of the urban local labor would increase by 11.71 percent.The research shows that the relationship between migrant workers and local workers is“mutually beneficial”rather than“offsetting”,and migration has an overall positive impact on urban labor market in general.