基于突发公共事件的信息传播动力学模型与舆情演化研究

Study on Information Propagation Dynamics Model and Opinion Evolution Based on Public Emergencies

针对突发公共事件信息传播传统演化模型未引入动态参数等问题,结合传播动力学提出了一种动态扩散网络突发公共事件的信息舆情演化系统与数学模型。首先对突发公共事件信息传播进行了分析与设计;其次对动态扩散网络进行了设计,并结合动力学构建了突发公共事件信息传播数学模型;最后对模型进行仿真分析,并与现实社会真实统计数据进行实证对比。结果表明:仿真结果数据与真实监测数据的相似度为0.838 6,相关系数为0.827 9;提出的数学模型揭示了微观个体信息与舆情传播的内在规律,与真实事件传播过程相吻合,证明了构建的模型是合理、有效的。

Aiming at the problem that the traditional evolutionary model of information dissemination for public emergencies does not introduce dynamic parameters,this paper proposed a dynamic diffusion system for public event information public opinion evolution and mathematical model based on propagation dynamics.Firstly,the information dissemination of public emergencies is analyzed and disigned.Secondly,the dynamic diffusion network is designed and combined with the dynamics to construct the mathematical model of public emergency information propagation.Finally,the model is simulated and analyzed,and compared with real social statistics.The results show that the similarity between experimental data and real data is 0.838 6,and the correlation coefficient is 0.827 9.The proposed model reveals the inherent laws of micro-individual information exchange and public opinion transmission,and is consistent with the process of real event propagation,which prove that the proposed model is reasonable and effective.