基于冲突证据融合的南水北调渠道工程健康诊断

Channel engineering health diagnosis of South-to-North Water Diversion Project based on conflict evidence fusion

D-S证据理论在处理高冲突证据的融合时有可能得出不符合实际的融合结果。为此引入信息熵概念来确定证据的确定性指数,并对证据可信度和虚假度进行修正,从而构造证据的客观权重,藉此描述证据的冲突性和不确定性;同时以综合权重最大值对应的指标为基准构造折扣因子,实现对证据源的修正。针对南水北调中线工程某高填方渠段实例研究,基于信息熵的证据折扣因子法能较好地进行冲突证据融合,可有效避免融合悖论现象。

An unrealistic fusion result may be produced when fusing high-conflict evidences by using the classical D-S Evidence Theory. For this reason, to describe the conflict and uncertainty of evidence, the certainty indexes of evidence are determined based on information entropy, and the credibility and falsity of evidence are modified by these certainty indexes to construct the objective weight of evidence. Meanwhile, the index corresponding to the maximum of comprehensive weight is used as a benchmark to construct a discount factor to actualize the optimization of evidence source. A case study on a high-filled section of channel in Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project shows that conflict evidence can be fused well and the paradox of fusion can be avoided effectively by adopting the evidence discount factor method based on information entropy.