塔里木盆地夏季降水和海温的关系

The Relationship Between Summer Precipitation in the Tarim Basin and Global Surface Sea Temperatures

基于1961—2015年6—8月新疆塔里木盆地34个站点的逐日降水数据和全球逐月海温数据,分析了塔里木盆地夏季降水和全球海温的关系。结果表明,塔里木盆地夏季降水和冬季及春季的南印度洋中部、赤道东太平洋以及南大西洋西部等区域海温具有良好的正相关关系,当上述区域海温偏暖时,对应塔里木盆地夏季降水偏多。进一步的分析发现,前期海温影响显著的时段主要集中在1月和5月。基于海温和降水数据,通过分析前期不同季节关键区的海温序列与降水序列的相关系数,取了8个关键区的海表温度作为预报因子,得出逐步回归预报方程。预测结果说明该预测方程对塔里木盆地夏季降水具有较好的预测技巧。

Based on the daily precipitation data of 34 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin, China and the monthly sea surface temperatures (SSTs)data from 1961 to 2015,this paper analyzes the relationships between summer precipitation in the Tarim Basin and global SSTs. Correlation analysis shows that the summer precipitation in the Tarim Basin has a positive correlation with the eastern and southern Indian Ocean,the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western South Atlantic, respectively. When the mentioned SSTs in different areas become warmer,the corresponding precipitation is more than ones in normal years. Further correlation analysis founds that the critical periods of leading impacts of SSTs are mainly concentrated in January and May. According to the correlations between SSTs and precipitation in key areas of different seasons,the sea surface temperatures of eight key areas are selected as the forecasting factors,and the regression equation is obtained. The forecasting results shows the better forecasting skill of the equation for summer precipitation in the Tarim Basin.