网络空间的崛起与战略稳定

On Strategic Stability in Cyberspace

如何构建网络空间秩序及应对网络空间对国际体系现存秩序的颠覆性挑战,是网络空间给国际社会带来的双重挑战。当前面临的首要问题是维护网络空间的战略稳定。"网络空间国际治理"和"维护网络空间战略稳定"正在发展成为全球战略专家共同关注的新兴科学和研究领域之一。战略稳定包括稳态、脆弱稳态和不稳态三种状态,这三种状态以及状态之间的转变是研究网络空间战略稳定的主要落脚点。对网络空间战略稳定要从生命周期的角度去研究其从稳定、脆弱稳定到不稳定的全过程。这将为研究网络空间秩序提供新视角,也可形成更加理性的决策。网络空间国际治理是对网络空间战略稳定的生命周期进行管理,避免不稳定状态,形成稳定状态的国际制度保障。在此机制中,国际规范和相关法律是网络空间国际治理中规范国家行为的重要方面。人们的知识框架和理论体系对于开展维护全球网络空间战略稳定的学术研究具有积极作用。各相关国家在形成共同语言的基础上,可以围绕共同关心的领域开展有效的对话和共同研究,从而影响各国网络空间战略的制定,进而形成有利于维护网络空间战略稳定的国际秩序。

Building a sustainable cyber order compatible with the current international order is the biggest challenge facing international society as the strategic importance of cyber security increases. Maintaining strategic stability is of utmost importance as consensus among great powers over acceptable cyber behavior rarely exist. International cyber governance and cyber strategic stability maintenance have become two of the emerging scientific fields in international studies. Cyberspace is either stable, delicately stable, or unstable, the three states of strategic stability. Cyber stability is better studied from a cyclic perspective with the aim of designing robust institutions against instability. International norms, rules, and regulations are essential standards for cyber conduct. Frameworks of human knowledge and scientific theories are also helpful with respect to academic research on cyber strategic stability. An international order conducive to cyber strategic stability can only be built after effective dialogues and joint studies based on shared interests which shape individual countries’ cyber strategies.