论新时期中美关系的重构与前途

Reconfiguring the China-U.S. Relationship in a New Era

自1979年中美建交以来,两国关系第三次走到十字路口。特朗普政府放弃冷战结束后美国历届政府对中国实行的"接触"政策,转向与中国进行"战略竞争",但也不排除与中国进行选择性合作。"中美战略竞争背景下的有选择合作"成为中美关系新常态,两国既竞争又合作的关系将长期存在。特朗普政府的政策将使中美两国在高科技领域合作、两军交流和学者学生交流等方面走向部分脱钩。中美关系进入新阶段的主要原因包括中美两国之间在国际体系中的结构性矛盾,经济全球化的负面影响,中美战略文化的巨大差异。中美战略竞争和博弈的主要领域和特征包括:双方经贸摩擦将长期化,在安全领域既竞争又合作将常态化,在台湾问题上的博弈可能增多,在人权问题上的争议对两国关系的负面影响上升。但是,中美关系的三根支柱决定了两国不会陷入像美苏之间那样的"冷战",也不会完全脱钩。在新时期,中美关系面临重构过程,需要稳步推进并最终实现以协调、合作、稳定为基调的中美关系。

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1979, China-U.S. relations have come to a crossroads for the third time. The Trump administration has abandoned the policy of "engagement" with China adopted by successive U.S. administrations after the end of the Cold War and turned to "strategic competition" with China, but has not ruled out selective cooperation with China."Selective cooperation in the context of strategic competition between China and the United States" has become the new normal in China-U.S. relations. And the relationship of competition and cooperation between the two countries will last for a long time. The Trump administration's policies will lead to a partial decoupling of China-U.S. relations in high-tech cooperation, military-to-military exchanges, and academic and student exchanges. The main reasons for the new stage of China-U.S. relations include the structural contradictions in the international system, the negative impact of economic globalization, and the huge differences between the strategic cultures of China and the United States. The main areas of strategic competition between China and the United States include: the economic and trade frictions between the two sides will be prolonged;the competition and cooperation in the security field will be normalized;tensions over the Taiwan Question may intensify;and the disputes on human rights issues will have a negative impact on the bilateral relationship. However, the three pillars of China-U.S. relations determine that the two countries will not fall into the new Cold War, nor will they completely decouple from each other. In a new era, China-U.S. relations are facing a process of reconfiguration, which requires steady progress and the eventual realization of China-U.S. relations based on coordination, cooperation, and stability.