基于Fisher最优分割法的太湖调度线时段划分研究

Research on time slot division of Taihu Lake dispatching line based on Fisher Optimal Partition Method

为分析现行的太湖调度线时段划分的合理性,优化太湖流域水利工程调度,基于Fisher最优分割法的原理,选取反映流域水情特征的降雨、水位、用水量等3个要素,共5个指标,在现行时段划分的基础上对其进行优化研究。本次优化方案调整了部分时段分点,优化了太湖流域非汛期、汛前期、主汛期、汛后期划分,将非汛期结束时间推迟了5 d,汛前期结束时间推迟了10 d,主汛期结束时间提前了10 d。与现行方案相比,该方案全面考虑了雨洪资源利用和太湖水生态环境安全,统筹兼顾防洪、水资源、水生态环境,是更为综合的划分尝试,研究成果可为太湖流域水利工程调度提供一定支撑。

In order to evaluate the rationality of the current time slot division of Taihu Lake dispatching line,and optimize water conservancy project scheduling,we improve the current time slot division based on the principle of Fisher optimal partition method and by selecting five indicators that reflect the water level,the rainfall and water use in the basin.According to the results,some of the division points were adjusted,and the division of non-flood season,pre-flood season,main flood season and later flood season in the basin were optimized.The end of the non-flood season is postponed for 5 days,the end of the pre-flood season is postponed for 10 days,and the end of main flood season is advanced for 10 days.Compared with the current division scheme,the optimized division scheme considers the utilization of rainwater resources and the ecological environment security in Taihu Lake,which is a more comprehensive division attempt,and may provide certain support for water conservancy project scheduling in the Taihu Lake basin.