基于AHP法的重大决策社会稳定风险评估体系研究

On the Social Stability Risk Evaluation Index System of Major Public Policy Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process——A Case Study on the Urban Renewal Policy of Foshan

重大决策的社会稳定风险评估是促进公共政策科学性和有效性,防范化解重大风险的有效手段。城市更新政策涉及征地拆迁、社会保障、公益事业等方面,属于有关城市发展和管理建设的重大决策。构建城市更新政策的社会稳定风险评估体系要在一般性的稳评方法基础上,探索适应此类政策专业性和特殊性的指标与方法,旨在从源头上预防、化解和减少社会稳定风险,促进城市更新工作的顺利开展。以佛山城市更新政策为分析样本,综合国内广泛实践的"四性"要求,增加廉政性和安全性作为一级指标,从政策过程视角出发,经过初步识别、风险调查、综合提炼三个步骤滚动识别风险点,构建基于层级分析法(AHP)的评估指标体系。研究发现,补偿方案合理性、负面影响外部性、出台时机成熟度、利益群体接受度、利益调节对象界定、政策连续性、索贿可能性、矛盾可化解程度、经济发展适应性、合法权益损害以及决策权限等因素是决定该类决策社会稳定风险等级高低的最重要因素。

Social stability risk assessment is an effective and approach to advance the reason and validity of public policy and to take precautions against social instability. Considering the particularity and specialty of urban renewal policy, new index should be carefully examined and added to ordinary assessment index system. Incorruption and Safety are added into the common practiced index system basically consists of four senior grades after analyzing the unban renewal policy of Foshan. Based on AHP, a new assessment index system is constructed with risk points prudently identified from a policy process view. Ultimately, 11 key risk factors are screened out and the corresponding policy suggestions about how to reduce the social stability risk are also discussed.