中国经济增长与OFDI增长:机理与实证

China's Economic Growth and OFDI Growth: Mechanism and Empirical Analysis

在分析中国经济增长与对外直接投资(OFDI)增长相互影响机制的基础上,利用2004-2015年中国30个省、市、自治区的相关数据,构建面板VAR模型对此进行实证研究。系统GMM回归结果表明:经济增长与OFDI增长之间具有显著的双向促进效应。这一结果不管是在总量意义上还是在劳均意义上均存在。而且发现,经济增长对流量OFDI增长的影响效应高于对存量OFDI增长的影响效应,而存量OFDI增长对经济增长的影响效应要高于流量OFDI增长对经济增长的影响效应。进一步考虑地区经济发展水平异质性的研究发现:经济增长对OFDI增长的影响在中西部地区相对较大,而在东部地区相对较小;OFDI增长对经济增长的影响在东部地区相对较大,而在中西部地区相对较小。脉冲响应函数分析与方差分解分析的结果均支持上述结论。研究结论蕴含的政策含义在于:在积极实施"走出去"发展战略时,应以经济增长为基础来推动OFDI增长,以促进OFDI增长与经济增长的双向互动与良性循环,同时在积极实施"走出去"战略推动经济增长时要充分考虑地区之间的差异性。

Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the interactive relationship between China’s economic growth and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) growth,the paper uses panel VAR model to empirically study the interactive relationship between the two with the data from 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2015. The results of system-GMM estimation show that economic growth and OFDI growth can promote each other and the two-way interactive effects are very significant. The results above exist both in the aggregate term and in the term of labor average. It is also found that the effect of economic growth on the growth of OFDI flow is higher than the effect on the growth of OFDI stock,and the effect of the OFDI stock growth on economic growth is higher than the effect of the growth of OFDI flow on the economic growth. The results of the further investigation by considering the regional heterogeneity show that the effects of economic growth on OFDI growth are stronger in middle and western regions than that in eastern region,while the effects of OFDI growth on economic growth are stronger in eastern region than that in middle and western region. The impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis consistently support the results above. The policy implications of the results are the following: When carrying out the “going out” strategy,China should depend on its own development to implement OFDI,and it is ought to promote the good interaction between economic growth and OFDI growth,and it is ought to fully consider the different development levels among different regions.