经济下行压力下我国上市公司财务风险成因的实证研究

Empirical Study on Cause of Financial Risk in Chinese Listed Companies under Economic Downturn

为了研究经济下行压力加大情况下上市公司财务风险的成因,本文选取我国A股股票市场中2017年度首次实施特别处理的20家上市公司(ST公司)和20家与之配对的上市公司为研究对象,首先运用显著性检验分析方法和主成份分析方法,提取财务风险成因的变量;在此基础上运用Probit回归模型对2015——2017年财务数据进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:与正常经济情况相比,在经济下行情况下,上市公司财务风险成因有较为显著的不同。经济下行压力加大情况下,反映公司股权结构和管理层持股与否等表外信息指标对上市公司财务风险的影响显著增加。

In order to study the causes of financial risk of listed companies under increasing downward pressure, this paper selects some samples as the object of study in China's A share stock market in 2017, namely, 20 listed companies (ST companies) with special treatment for the first time and their matching listed companies. First, the causes of the financial risk variables are extracted by using analytical methods and principal component analysis, and the author conducts an empirical analysis of financial data during 2015- 2017 by Profit Regression Model. The findings show that the causes of the financial risk of listed companies under the economic downturn are strikingly different from ones in normal economic conditions, the company's ownership structure and management information increasingly significant to the financial risk of listed companies.