基于多元线性回归的盈亏平衡分析

Profit and Loss Balance Analysis Based on Multivariate Linear Regression

用多元线性回归对产品产销量、成本与利润之间的关系进行分析,在验证成本与产销量成线性关系的情况下,采用逐步回归拟合了成本性态下的盈亏平衡模型。对企业生产多产品的情况,引入线性插值法得到多产品下盈亏平衡点,并对盈亏平衡图作出分析,发现企业在实际生产经营时要尽早先安排生产贡献毛益率大的产品,这样可以尽快弥补固定资产,实现盈利。同时基于多元线性回归的盈亏平衡分析作了产销不一致和亏损状态时产品品种结构变化的拓展,以期为企业整体效益的发展趋势作出预估,提高企业风险规避能力和经营决策能力。

Multiple linear regression is used to analyze the relationship among output and sales volume, cost and profit.Under the condition of verifying that the cost and sales volume are linear, stepwise regression is used to fit the profit and loss model under the cost behavior. When an enterprise produces multiple products, linear interpolation method is introduced to obtain the break-even point under multiple products, and the break-even chart is analyzed. It is found that the enterprise should arrange the production of products with large gross profit rate as early as possible in actual production and operation,so as to make up for fixed assets and realize profits as soon as possible. At the same time, based on the break-even analysis of multiple linear regression, the model is expanded when the outputs and sale volumes are inconsistent, or the product variety structure change in the situation of the loss, so as to predict the development trend of the overall benefit of the enterprise,and improve the enterprise’s risk aversion ability and operational decision-making ability.