基于情景差异的应急方案生成方法优选决策

Optimal Method of Emergency Alternatives Based on the Situation Difference

应急方案的选择影响突发事件风险决策的效率。目前,国内外主流的应急方案生成方法可以分为“案例推理”、“计算机算法推理”、“前景理论”和“考虑多因素的数理模型”四种。根据突发事件决策情景的差异选择应急方案的生成方法,需要设计应急方案生成方法优选的决策依据,明确在不同类型突发事件中应急决策的要素组合,以及不同生成方法的适用性,从而缓解多类型突发事件应急方案生成方法的选择困境。

The selection of emergency alternative affects the efficiency of risk decision making.At present,the mainstream emergency alternative generation methods can be divided into four kinds:"Case-based reasoning",“Computer algorithm reasoning",“Prospect theory"and“Multi-factor mathematical model".According to the differences in emergency decision-making scenarios on the option to choose emergency alternatives,decision needs to be made by designing the optimization based on the emergency alternative generating methods,clearance in different types of emergency decision elements combination,and the applicability of different generation methods,thus alleviating the dilemma of emergency alternative generating method to multiple types of emergencies.