埋地管道HEMP响应的不确定度量化

Uncertainty Quantification of Response of Buried Pipeline to High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

高空核爆电磁脉冲(HEMP)会在埋地油气管道上产生感应电流和感应电压,可能对油气管道的测量监控装置及阴极保护系统产生影响。在耦合响应的计算中,有必要考虑参数变化引起的响应的不确定性。传统的蒙特卡罗方法(MC)随着样本数量的增加,计算效率下降。该文首先基于随机配点法(SC)和随机降阶法(SROM),构造了埋地管道电流和电压响应的不确定度量化的计算模型;然后采用HEMP的Bell实验室波形,以入射仰角、入射方位角作为随机输入变量,计算了埋地管道响应电流和响应电压的统计信息;之后以蒙特卡罗方法的计算结果为参考,对比了SC和SROM两种方法的准确度和计算效率;最后基于SC方法研究了响应电流对输入参数的敏感度。该研究结果可为埋地管道不确定度量化研究提供相关参考。

High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) can induce current and voltage on buried oil/gas pipelines, which may affect the monitoring devices and cathodic protection systems of oil and gas pipelines. In the calculation of the coupling response, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of the response caused by the variation of the input parameters. The computational efficiency of the traditional Monte Carlo method will decrease with the increase of the sample size. Based on stochastic collocation method (SC) and stochastic reduced order models (SROM) method, the uncertainty quantification calculation model of current and voltage response of buried pipeline have been established in this paper. For the Bell Lab waveform of HEMP, taking incident angle and incident azimuth as random input variables, the statistical information of response current and voltage of buried pipeline has been calculated. Taking the calculation results of Monte Carlo method as reference, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the SC and SROM method have been compared. Finally, based on the SCmethod, the sensitivity of the response current to the input parameters has been analyzed. The results of the study can provide relevant reference for the uncertainty quantification of buried pipelines.