2017年新疆精河M_S6.6地震遥感大气温度变化特征分析

Analysis of Atmospheric Temperature Change Characteristics Based on Remote Sensing During the 2017 Jinghe( Xinjiang ) M_S6.6 Earthquake

在中国地震台网中心2016年底利用热红外遥感技术预测2017年新疆西部地区为潜在M_S6.6±0.2地震危险区的基础上,分析2017年8月9日精河MS6.6地震临震时段引潮力变化,并选用18时(UTC)中国大陆近地表50m高度处的遥感大气温度数据,以震前引潮力值最高点时刻(8月1日)为时间背景,获取地震前后(8月2～13日)连续的大气温度日增量分布图像,跟踪分析精河M_S6.6地震短临大气温度变化。结果显示:地震发生在天体引潮力由高峰—低谷连续周期变化的低谷时段,而大气温度变化过程显示,在全国大范围内,仅震中附近大气温度升高明显,其异常演化经历了起始—加强—高峰—衰减—再增强—发震—平静的动态过程。增温过程与潮汐变化具有同步性,这表明引潮力对本次地震具有触诱发的作用,而大气温度变化反映了本次地震地应力的变化过程,也说明在地震预测实践中,从中、短临多时间尺度综合分析遥感大气温度和引潮力变化,将有助于提高地震预测能力。

Based on the prediction that the MS 6.6±0.2 area would be a potential seismic hazard zone in Western Xinjiang in 2017 by using thermal infrared remote sensing technology at the end of 2016 by China Earthquake Networks Center, the variation of tidal force during the imminent earthquake is analyzed. At the same time, the peak point of tidal force(August 1, 2017) is used as a time indicator for temperature anomaly background selection. Using atmospheric temperature data at the height of 50m near the surface of Chinese mainland at 18:00(UTC), the continuous daily incremental atmospheric temperature distribution images before and after the earthquake(8.2-8.13) were acquired, and the short-term and imminent atmospheric temperature changes of the Jinghe MS6.6 earthquake on August 9, 2017 were tracked and analyzed. the results show that the earthquake occur in the low valley period of continuous periodic variation of celestial tidal generating force. the process of atmospheric temperature change shows that the atmospheric temperature increases obviously only near the epicenter in a wide range of the country, and the change went through the process:initial rise-enhancement-reaching abnormal peak-attenuation-re-enhancement-earthquake occurred-return to normal. the synchronization between the temperature-increasing process and the tidal change indicates that the tidal-generating force has the function of triggering earthquake. the change of atmospheric temperature reflects the process of in-situ stress change during the earthquake, and also indicates that comprehensive analysis of atmospheric temperature and tidal force on medium and short temporal scales will help to improve earthquake prediction ability in the practice of earthquake prediction.