能源碳排放与经济增长——基于陕西省的实证检验

Energy Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth-Empirical Test Based on Shaanxi Province

基于能源大省陕西省1990—2015年能源消费量数据,应用碳排放公式计算碳排放量,经平稳性检验,采用协整及格兰杰因果关系检验等计量方法,就陕西省能源碳排放和经济增长数量关系与运行特征进行检验分析。结果显示:长期来看,陕西省能源碳排放与经济增长之间存在协整关系;两者间存在由经济增长到能源碳排放的单向格兰杰因果关系,经济增长促使了能源碳排放的加剧。根据检验分析结果,为促进陕西省区域社会经济的平衡充分发展,给出陕西省实行节能减排和发展低碳经济的若干启示及建议。

Based on the energy consumption data of Shaanxi Province from 1990 to 2015, the carbon emission formula is used to calculate carbon emissions. After the stability test, the co-integration and Granger causality test are used to measure energy carbon emissions and economy in Shaanxi Province. The growth quantity relationship and operational characteristics are tested and analyzed. The results show that in the long run, there is a co-integration relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Shaanxi Province;there is a one-way Granger causal relationship between economic growth and energy carbon emissions, and economic growth has promoted carbon emissions. According to the results of inspection and analysis, some inspirations and suggestions for implementing energy-saving emission reduction and developing a low-carbon economy in Shaanxi Province are given.