大幅“双降”:社保制度改革进程中的一个转折点——从长期制度安排和长期经济增长的角度

A Sharp “Double Down”: A Turning Point in the Reform of Social Security System——From the Point View of Long-term Institutional Arrangement and Economic Growth

文章对中国社保费率水平进行了国际比较,认为该费率水平在世界各国排位中名列前茅。在分析中国社保"名义费率"居高不下的成因时,文章认为这主要是因为中国社保制度接纳"老人"的转型成本所致,而发达国家在建立制度之初一般并没赋予其这个功能。文章还对高税费和高增长的"中国奇迹之谜"做了简要分析,认为基础设施的高投资、社保制度的低遵从度、提高行政效率和网络经济发达等三个方面可被解释为其主要原因。文章认为,此轮大幅减低费率和费基(简称"双降")意义重大而深远,作为走向"轻税型"社保制度的一个转折点,它是改善社保制度公平性和可及性的重要手段,是社保改革的一个长期的制度安排,是社保制度改革取向和改革观念的一次重大进步。最后,文章对大幅"双降"之后养老保险制度面临的挑战进行了展望。

The article makes an international comparison of the contribution rate of social security system in China, and points out that the burden of contribution rate is amongst the heaviest in the world. Analyzing the causes of the high nominal contribution rate in China, we can see that this is mainly because the Chinese social security system has to absorb the historical transitional cost of “old people”, while the social security system in developed countries generally faced no such task at the beginning of its establishment. The article also briefly analyzes the “mystery of Chinese miracle” of high growth under high tax, and argues that there’re four main underlying factors: high investment in infrastructure, low compliance of social security contribution, improvement of government’s administrative efficiency, and development of network economy. The article argues that this round of sharply reducing both the contribution rate and contribution base (referred to as “double down”) is a turning point towards a “light tax” social security system. As a long-term institutional arrangement, it has far-reaching historical significance. After illustrating the transformation of the collection regime of social security system in 2018, the author concludes that this “double down” has met the conditions for contribution compliance.