养老保险降费后养老金缺口预测及中长期应对措施

Prediction of the Size of the Pension Gap after the Reduction of Employer's Contribution Rate and Mediumand Long-term Countermeasures

降低基本养老保险单位缴费率是当前应对错综复杂的全球经济形势和国内经济转型的必要措施,但这一措施将进一步扩大养老金缺口,为此需要尽快落实国有资本划转政策和及早实施延迟退休政策。预测显示,如果这两项政策落实及时且到位,那么就可以不用变现国有资本,而只靠国有资本的收益来弥补养老金缺口。如果不能及时实施延迟退休政策,就需要变现国有资本。

Reducing the employer’s contribution rate of basic pension insurance is a necessary measure to cope with the complicated global economic situation and domestic economic transformation, but this measure will further expand the pension gap in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to transfer the state-owned capital to social security fund and implement the delayed retirement policy as early as possible. This paper predicts that if these two policies are implemented in time and in place, then we can make up for the future pension gap only by the return of state-owned equity instead of selling the equity. If the policy of delayed retirement cannot be implemented in time, it is necessary to gradually sell state-owned shares.