赣东北低山丘陵区农村居民点时空演变格局及影响因素研究——以江西省贵溪市为例

Spatial-Temporal Evolution Pattern of Rural Settlements and Their Influence Factors in Low Mountains and Hills of Northeastern Jiangxi Province:A Case Study of Guixi City

科学辨识农村居民点的空间分布特征及其影响因素是研究城乡建设用地合理利用、农村居民点优化布局和村级土地利用规划的基础。选取赣东北低山丘陵区——贵溪市为研究区,综合运用空间自相关、标准距离、标准差椭圆及核密度分析等空间统计方法,全面分析了贵溪市2005—2015年农村居民点规模结构和空间分布的演变特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:2005—2015年贵溪市农村居民点空间分布模式的全局Moran’s I指数均表现出显著的空间正相关集聚态势;近10年来,农村居民点主要以东南-西北轴为扩展方向,东南、中部、西北3个方向为2005—2015年重点发展方向,西北方向最为突出,新增农村居民点主要集中分布在研究区中部和西北部区域;对比分析2005年和2015年农村居民点核密度分布情况,两个时期贵溪市农村居民点有集中收缩的趋势,均呈现"东南-西北密,西南-东北疏"的空间分布格局,空间形态表现为"大分散、小集聚"的分布特征。2005—2015年研究区农村居民点空间分布主要集中在海拔低、坡度缓、近河流、沿交通道路、距城镇近、无土壤侵蚀和地质灾害的区域。分析表明,研究区农村居民点是自然环境因素、自然灾害因素和社会经济因素共同作用的结果,农村居民点受到高程、坡度、河流、地质灾害、水土流失、交通道路、城镇、政策与规划导向等因素的显著影响,交通道路、城镇、政策与规划导向是影响贵溪市农村居民点空间分布格局的主要因素。

Scientifically identifying the spatial distribution characteristics of rural residential and its influence factors are the basis for urban and rural construction land,rural settlement and village planning optimization.Taking low mountains and hills of northeastern Jiangxi Province as a study area,the spatial statistics methods such as spatial autocorrelation,standard distance,standard deviational ellipse,and kernel density estimators were applied to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and influence factors of rural settlement in 2005 and 2015 in Guixi City comprehensively.The research results show that:Firstly,from 2005 to 2015,the Global Moran’s I value of rural settlement area exhibited significant aggregation trend in Guixi City.Secondly,rural settlement mainly developed along a southeast-northwest axis in the study area in the past 10 years.The southeast,middle and northwest were the important trend directions from 2005 to 2015,but the orientation of northeast was the most evident.The new rural settlement was mainly distributed in the central and northwest regions of Guixi City.Comparative analysis of the distribution of nuclear density in rural settlements in 2005 and 2015,there was a tendency of concentrated shrinkage in rural settlements during the two periods, which trend to southeast-northwest high and southwest northeast low.The spatial distribution pattern appears to “big scattered,small agglomeration”.From 2005 to 2015,rural settlements in study area were mainly distributed in areas with lower altitude,gentle slope,near rivers and roads,shorter distance to towns,no soil erosion,and no geological disasters.Rural settlements were the result of the interaction between natural environment factors, natural disaster factors,and socioeconomic factors in the study area.The rural residential area were significantly affected by elevation,slope,rivers,geological hazard,soil erosion,traffic roads,towns,policy,and planning guidance,but the traffic roads,towns,policy and planning guidance were the main influence factors in controlling spatial distribution pattern of rural settlements in Guixi City.