政策导向下郑州城市供水量的GSSPA预测模型

GSSPA Forecasting Model of Urban Water Supply Under Policy Guidance in Zhengzhou

对城市供水量作出合理的预测是制定水资源供求计划的前提。以郑州市为例,通过研究郑州城市供水量与人口因素、自然因素、社会因素等影响因子的关联关系发现,2013—2016年影响郑州城市供水量的主要因素为自然人口因子与城镇化水平因子,近期国家政策导向是影响郑州城市供水量增多的主要原因。将城市供水量分解为长期趋势项与短期波动项,并融合灰色关联模型、灰色预测模型和集对分析聚类预测模型的优势,建立了郑州城市供水的GSSPA预测模型,为城市供水系统的有效管控提供了理论支持。

Reasonable prediction of urban water supply is the precondition for formulating water supply and demand plan. Taking Zhengzhou city as an example,this paper studies the incidence relation between urban water supply and its influencing factors,such as demographic factors,natural factors,social factors and so on,it is found that the main factors affecting urban water supply in Zhengzhou from 2013 to 2016 are natural population factors and urbanization level factors,and the recent policy guidance is the main reason for the increase of urban water supply. The urban water supply quantity is divided into long-term trend and short-term fluctuation,then the GSSPA model of urban water supply in Zhengzhou is established by combining the advantages of grey incidence model,grey forecasting model and set pair analysis clustering prediction method,which provides theoretical support for the effective management and control of urban water supply system.