城乡收入差距、能源消耗与环境污染的双向耦合关系——基于经济起因的互动关系

Two-way Coupling Relationship between Urban-Rural Income Disparity,Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution:Interactive Relations Based on Economic Causes

采用2007—2016年中国省级面板数据,利用PVAR模型和GLS方法检验了城乡收入差距对温室气体和污染物排放的影响。首先,借助PVAR模型分析指标间双向耦合关系,得出如下结论:碳排放和工业废水排放的直接效应与反馈效应表现为不对称,工业固体废物排放的直接效应与反馈效应表现对应相反;城乡收入差距仅是影响固体废物排放的原因,两者存在单向因果关系,温室气体和污染物排放均不是城乡收入差距的直接原因;能源消费为温室气体和污染物排放的因,仅工业固体废物排放是能源消费的原因;城乡收入差距与能源消费在异质污染物排放下呈因果关系各异。然后,利用GLS方法进行样本数据分组回归,得出如下结果:在固体废物低排区,多重经济因素作用下收入差距拉大增加固体废物排放;在固体废物高排区,当城乡收入差距较小时,经济因素交互下城镇化率对工业固体废物的系数为正,当城乡收入差距较大时,可通过增加外商投资、吸引高质量人力资本和提高农村金融效率来降低由城乡收入差距,以引起工业固体废物增排。最后,就降低污染和缩小城乡收入差距等给出建议。

Using the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2016,this paper examines the impacts of income disparity between urban and rural areas on the emission of three major pollutants through PVAR and GLS models.Firstly,it uses the PVAR model to analyze the bidirectional coupling relationship between the indicators,the results show as follows: the direct and feedback effects of carbon emissions and industrial waste water emissions are asymmetric,the direct and feedback effects of industrial solid waste discharge are opposite;the income gap between urban and rural areas is only the cause affecting the solid waste discharge,and there is a one-way causal relationship between them,neither greenhouse gas nor pollutant emissions are the direct causes of the income gap between urban and rural areas;energy consumption is the cause of the three major pollutants discharge,only industrial solid waste is the cause of energy consumption and it constitutes a two-way Granger causal relationship;there are different causal relationships between urban-rural income gap and energy consumption under heterogeneous pollutant emissions.Secondly,through grouping and regression of sample data by GLS method,it concludes that:in the low discharge area of solid waste,the income gap is widened under the influence of economic factors,and the solid waste discharge is increased;in high solid waste discharge areas,when the income gap between urban and rural areas is small,the urbanization rate is positive to the coefficient of industrial solid waste under the interaction of economic factors,and when the income gap between urban and rural areas is large,the urbanization rate is positive to the coefficient of industrial solid waste.At the same time,increasing foreign investment,attracting high-quality human capital and improving rural financial efficiency can reduce the increase of industrial solid waste caused by urban-rural income disparity.At the end,it gives suggestions to reduce pollution and urban-rural income disparity.