水文频率计算研究面临的挑战与建议

Research challenges and suggestions of hydrological frequency calculation

水文频率计算是水文分析计算的主要内容之一,是各类涉水工程规划、设计确定工程规模和管理决策的主要依据。经过140多年的研究和实践,水文频率计算已经形成较为完整的理论体系与方法。包括:水文样本选择和数据检验、经验频率计算、频率分布函数选取、分布函数参数估计、分布模型检验、设计值计算和设计值不确定性分析。所有这些支撑了涉水工程的规划、设计和管理。根据国内外有关研究进展,总结了水文序列频率计算的前提条件、频率分布函数和参数计算方法。从水文频率分布函数选择、水文数据、分布函数参数计算、经验频率等方面分析了水文频率计算研究面临的挑战。在此基础上,提出了水文频率计算研究的一些建议,以期促进水文频率计算理论的进一步发展。

Hydrological frequency calculation is one of main contents of hydrological analysis and calculation.It also can provide scientific basis the planning,design and management for all types of water projects.During 140 years researches and applications,hydrological frequency calculation has been formed a complete theories and methods.Including:hydrological data sampling and data validation,empirical probability calculation,parameters estimation of probability distribution function,goodness-of-fit testing,hydrological design values calculation and their uncertainty analysis.These achievements have supported the planning,design and management for all types of water projects.In this paper,on the basis of the systematic summary of the existing research results,such as prerequisite of hydrological frequency calculation,probability distribution function and its parameters estimation methods,empirical probability.The author proposed some suggestions of future hydrological frequency calculation,and expect to promote the development of hydrological frequency calculation theory.