“一带一路”背景下中日韩自贸区的福利效应实证研究

An empirical study on welfare effect of China-Japan-Korea FTA under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

随着"一带一路"倡议的影响力不断扩大,推进中日韩自贸区的建设也显得格外重要。在Caliendo-Parro国际贸易模型的基础上,测算中日韩建成自贸区且关税降为零后给三国带来的贸易福利和真实工资变化。结果表明:贸易福利获益最大的是韩国,贸易福利增长达3%,其次是中国,最后是日本。从进出口贸易增长来看,韩国从中国的进口将大幅增加为127%;日本从中国和韩国的进口都将得到改善,且从中国的进口由负增长变为正增长;而中国对日韩的进出口也获得了改善。从行业结构来看,中国的进口价格受影响最大的行业是化工、汽车、医药和基本金属行业,日本的出口价格受影响最大的行业是食品、通讯、采矿和化工行业,而韩国的出口价格受影响最大的行业是通讯、食品、化工和汽车行业。

With the increasing influence of the Belt and Road Initiative,it is especially important to push forward the establishment of China-Japan-Korea FTA(Free Trade Area). Based on Caliendo-Parro International Trade Model,this paper measures and calculates each nation’s welfare and real wage change after establishing China-Japan-Korea FTA(CJK FTA) with the tariff reduced to zero among the three nations. The simulating results show that Korea would be the most advantageously involved country from CJK FTA,its trade welfare would rise to 3%,follows by China and then Japan. From the aspect of import and export trade growth,Korea’s import from China would increase greatly to 127%;Japan’s import from China and Korea would be improved,which turns from negative into positive;while China’s import and export from Japan and Korea would be also improved. From the aspect of structure of industries,the most affected industries of China’s import would be chemicals,automobiles,pharmaceuticals and basic metals. From the aspect of exporting price,the most affected industries of Japan would be food,communication,mining and chemical industry;while the most effected industries of Korea would be communication,food,chemical and auto industry.