大国博弈与中间地带的动荡与冲突

Great Powers’ Game and Instability and Conflict in the Intermediate Zone

国际权力转移激化大国矛盾。历史经验表明,大国权力转移的交替期,往往是地缘政治危机的高发期。由于世界主要大国都拥有核武器,所以大国间爆发战争变得不可能。大国间的结构性矛盾,主要通过除军事对抗之外的其他领域和手段体现出来,这其中,"中间地带"成为大国博弈的重要战场,因而越来越多的发展中国家沦为霸权主义的牺牲品。中国必须强化地缘政治意识,学会"用革命的两手对付反革命的两手"。

This paper holds that the shift of international power aggravates the conflict between big powers. History shows that the alternation period of powers shift is often the high-incidence period of geopolitical crisis. Since all the major powers in the world possess nuclear weapons, the structural conflicts among big powers are more often manifested through other means rather than military confrontation. The Intermediate Zone has become an important battlefield for the big powers' game, thus more and more developing countries become victims of strategic game. China must strengthen its geopolitical consciousness and learn to deal with counter-revolutionary means with revolutionary means.